TIPS Are Not An Investment

Last week, the Wall Street Journal’s Brett Arends published an article questioning why TIPS had a negative real yield. TIPS, US Government bonds that adjust their yield with changes in inflation, are currently so popular that Mr. Arends notes that some of them have a negative real yield(real yields are total yields less factors like inflation). Arends wonders why anyone would want a guaranteed loss of the real value of his investment. The answer is obvious to anyone besides Fed Chairman Ben Bernake –people are willing to pay to protect themselves from the coming storm of inflation. This concern for the value of the US Dollar has turned TIPS into insurance rather than an investment.

TIPS are one of several vehicles commonly accepted as inflation hedges, along with real estate and commodities like gold. Each of these investments is expected to increase in value at about the rate of inflation (although TIPS are tied to the CPI, which may currently be understating true inflation). Unlike real estate and gold, TIPS are not particularly prone to speculation. Real estate has proven to be highly volatile, and gold has recently collapsed. TIPS are more stable, and the cost to buy and sell them is negligible compared to the competition. Further, raw gold does not pay interest like TIPS, and TIPS do not depreciate like real estate.

Advanced financial tools like futures options can isolate the inflation hedge element of gold from its speculative value, but such techniques are beyond most investors. Further, after considering the cost to buy and store gold and the cost to protect it from declines, TIPS are very competitive.

TIPS investors are fully rational. They know that the real yield on these bonds is close to zero, but they also know that they will be protected from surprise inflation. TIPS are not an investment whereby wealth grows; rather TIPS are inflation insurance, and their negative yield is the premium investors pay. The US Government uses its market power to charge for insurance against the very inflation it recklessly invites through expansive policies like stimulus and QE2.

Investments with negative yield are nothing new. Middle Age goldsmiths (early bankers) charged to store their clients’ wealth safe from thieves. The Knights Templar charged to transport wealth across dangerous trade routes. During times of crisis, such as 2008, investors have accepted negative yields on regular US T-Bills, paying the US Government to protect their money. All these are instances where investments became insurance and protection.

Arends misses the point of TIPS. The fact that people will accept negative real yields on TIPS proves that the market thinks inflation is a real threat, and they are willing to pay to protect their savings. This market consensus, along with the collapsing US Dollar and soaring commodities should be enough to get the Fed’s attention. Recession or no, the US must avoid another Nixon / Carter 1970′s stagflation disaster.

Sorry Beck & Ramsey, Now Is The Time For Debt

Media personalities Glenn Beck and Dave Ramsey rail against debt because it is risky. Beck sees a storm on the horizon of government collapse and hyperinflation. Ramsey once fell to bankruptcy and now sleeps well knowing that no bank can take his home. Both men are correct that trouble is brewing and too much debt is bad, but now is not the time to de-lever for most people. Now may be the time to take on as much fixed rate long term debt as can be afforded.

Contrary to the absolutist Ramsey, debt can be either good or bad. Running up one’s credit cards to finance a vacation is irresponsible, but using debt to fund a reasonably sized home or a business expansion is generally good. With the signs of inflation on the horizon, holding large amounts of the right kind of debt may be the wisest strategy.

As Shout Bits has argued in the past, surprise increases in the rate of inflation act to transfer real wealth from savers to borrowers. Deflation does the opposite, which explains why the government – the world’s largest debtor – is still afraid of deflation even though all signs point toward inflation. Conspiracy theory alert: when the government keeps on talking about deflation while actively pursuing hyperinflation policies like QE2 and fiscal stimulus, it may be an ambush of the nation’s savings. All this would sound like truther babble except that the US government has done this intentionally in the past, including twice in the 20th Century. Devaluing currency to effectively default on sovereign debt is an age old trick, and it looks like the Obama administration is using the financial crisis as cover for this abuse of public trust.

If one owns assets that are largely protected from inflation (e.g real estate, commodities, TIPS, certain companies that can pass rising costs on to their customers), financing them with fixed rate debt doubles the inflation protection. As the value of the assets rises nearly as fast as inflation, the value of the debt will fall – making the debt easier to repay. Long term fixed rate debt is best because its value falls with inflation the most (i.e. its duration is long making it more sensitive to inflation changes). Should the inflation rate increase, this strategy will preserve the value of assets while reducing the real cost of the debt used to secure them – a win/win scenario.

To protect from increases in inflation, do not follow the Beck / Ramsey extreme austerity plans. Do not buy a house that is unaffordable, but do own a house. Do finance that house with long term fixed rate debt, and the inflation hedge is in place. Do not hold credit card debt, but do consolidate any debts into a fixed rate home loan if possible. Save, but do not hold pure cash in excess of a few month’s expenses, as cash is vulnerable to inflation and the Dollar’s value is uncertain. The Government’s policies of monetary and fiscal stimulus can work to the advantage of savvy investors.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Nothing in this article is meant to be specific investment advice, and investors should not rely on this article as the basis for investment decisions. There is no such thing as a ‘typical’ investor. Never take investment advice from a source that has not evaluated your specific investment goals and risk constraints.

Krugman Is The Worst

As the rapidly dwindling fans of Keith Olbermann know, the MSNBC host likes to tar his enemies with the moniker “worst person in the world.” Rather than heaping this often humorless praise on deserving foes, Olbermann most often targets fairly harmless lesserknowns and obvious blowhards like Bill O’Reilly. In the gracious spirit of Olbermann’s mildly likeable shtick, Shout Bits hereby nominates a new worst person in the world: Paul Krugman.

Krugman is a Nobel Laureate, a professor at Princeton, a New York Times columnist, and an advocate for Keynesian spending and trade protectionism – in other words a socialist’s tweed clad dream. Krugman is among the hard left critics of Pres. Obama for not spending enough on stimulus and various social justice programs. A man for all seasons, Krugman advocates for higher taxes during good times to always grow the government. As Krugman’s tax and spend creeping socialism drains away US jobs, he advocates a new world order that would cripple trade and plunge the world back into a new Great Depression. His academic achievements are perhaps second only to Keynes in their assault on free markets and individual liberties. Finally, his nasal bleating voice is a crime in itself.

Still, Krugman is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the extreme left. He possesses only words as his tools to take down the US capitalist system. How can a person whose only ally is the First Amendment be ‘the worst person in the world?’ To paraphrase Stalin, how many armies does Krugman have? Krugman was powerless, until this week when Donald Kohn announced his retirement from the Fed.

Left wing ideologues quickly rallied behind Krugman to replace Kohn as Fed Vice Chairman, much as they did when Ben Bernanke’s renewal was in jeopardy. Suddenly, Krugman may get his army. Anyone concerned about the US’s national debt, inflation, or free trade should work to quash this idea before it grows legs.

As Shout Bits argued last week, Obama is exacerbating an already dangerous problem with his extreme wasteful spending binge. The only way Obama can hope to pay for his libertine excesses is through surprise inflation – which will transfer wealth from savers to borrowers like the US Treasury. Unfortunately, the Fed has long stood in the way of inflationary policies. Ever since the monetary policies of the Nixon, Ford and Carter administrations nearly ruined the nation, the Fed’s first priority has been to restrain money supply growth and contain inflation.

The “spread the wealth” President would no doubt like some room to operate and inflation is a stealthy way to steal from the responsible and give to the debtors. Enter Krugman, who’s every policy is inflationary. Krugman supports deficit spending (inflationary), loose monetary policies (inflationary), and in good times, tax increases (long term inflationary by growing government faster than the economy) – consanguinity indeed for a President who wants to reshape the economy.

With the retirement of Kohn, Obama may now appoint three of the seven Fed members. While Krugman may be an extreme example of leftist fiscal and monetary policies, there are many lefties with PhDs in economics. Freedom loving Americans should demand deficit hawks on the Fed, not the socialists with whom Obama normally rubs shoulders. Monetary policy is at the heart of US economic strength, and there is good cause to worry that Obama does not know the lessons of Carter era inflation.