Last week, the Wall Street Journal’s Brett Arends published an article questioning why TIPS had a negative real yield. TIPS, US Government bonds that adjust their yield with changes in inflation, are currently so popular that Mr. Arends notes that some of them have a negative real yield(real yields are total yields less factors like inflation). Arends wonders why anyone would want a guaranteed loss of the real value of his investment. The answer is obvious to anyone besides Fed Chairman Ben Bernake –people are willing to pay to protect themselves from the coming storm of inflation. This concern for the value of the US Dollar has turned TIPS into insurance rather than an investment.
TIPS are one of several vehicles commonly accepted as inflation hedges, along with real estate and commodities like gold. Each of these investments is expected to increase in value at about the rate of inflation (although TIPS are tied to the CPI, which may currently be understating true inflation). Unlike real estate and gold, TIPS are not particularly prone to speculation. Real estate has proven to be highly volatile, and gold has recently collapsed. TIPS are more stable, and the cost to buy and sell them is negligible compared to the competition. Further, raw gold does not pay interest like TIPS, and TIPS do not depreciate like real estate.
Advanced financial tools like futures options can isolate the inflation hedge element of gold from its speculative value, but such techniques are beyond most investors. Further, after considering the cost to buy and store gold and the cost to protect it from declines, TIPS are very competitive.
TIPS investors are fully rational. They know that the real yield on these bonds is close to zero, but they also know that they will be protected from surprise inflation. TIPS are not an investment whereby wealth grows; rather TIPS are inflation insurance, and their negative yield is the premium investors pay. The US Government uses its market power to charge for insurance against the very inflation it recklessly invites through expansive policies like stimulus and QE2.
Investments with negative yield are nothing new. Middle Age goldsmiths (early bankers) charged to store their clients’ wealth safe from thieves. The Knights Templar charged to transport wealth across dangerous trade routes. During times of crisis, such as 2008, investors have accepted negative yields on regular US T-Bills, paying the US Government to protect their money. All these are instances where investments became insurance and protection.
Arends misses the point of TIPS. The fact that people will accept negative real yields on TIPS proves that the market thinks inflation is a real threat, and they are willing to pay to protect their savings. This market consensus, along with the collapsing US Dollar and soaring commodities should be enough to get the Fed’s attention. Recession or no, the US must avoid another Nixon / Carter 1970′s stagflation disaster.