At the time of this entry, Massachusetts voters are deciding on their next Senator. A fresh poll shows the GOP candidate Scott Brown up by 9 points. Given AG Coakley’s desperate thrashing to the finish line, Brown’s chances look good. Amazing as that is, the real political tsunami will hit the House. Rep. Stupak and his anti-government-funded-abortion posse may be about to hold all the cards.

Recall that a group of about 40 Representatives, led by Stupak, opposed abortion funding as a part of Pres. Obama’s health care bill. While it is hard to say exactly what the House bill says, Stupak seems to have stopped abortion funding in the House. Further, the House Bill passed by only 5 votes, giving Stupak more than enough power to tip the balance in future votes.

By contrast, abortion funding seems to be in the final Senate Bill, although nobody knows for sure. Stupak has repeatedly stated that he does not support the Senate abortion language, whatever it may be.

Assuming Sen. Kennedy’s old seat goes red, the Democrats will lack the 60 votes required to introduce a modified Senate health bill. While Sen. Reid has threatened to use the ‘nuclear option’ and bypass a cloture vote as a part of the reconciliation process, that is all bluster. Reid would assure a Dem wipeout in November by altering established Senate order. With Brown in the Senate, Reid will be powerless to amend his health bill. However, the Senate has already passed a health bill, and if the House were to pass the exact same language, no reconciliation would be necessary.

A GOP win in Massachusetts will put all of Washington’s eyes on Stupak. Every lever of Democrat pressure and persuasion will be used to get him to agree to the Senate abortion language. Still, the Stupak 40 know that by voting for government funded abortion, they will lose their seats. Reid, Pelosi, and Obama face some harsh mathematics in trading 40 or more House Seats for one bill.

What kind of pork bribery would it take for the House to approve language that could cost 40 Seats and possibly the House majority? Considering a single Senate vote went for something like $50bln in the case of Sen. Nelson, we might witness corruption on an unprecedented scale.

If nothing else, the next few hours and the ensuing weeks will be good political theater. No doubt Stupak’s palms are sweaty, and he is not looking forward to his first phone call tomorrow morning. For those who oppose socialized health care, let’s hope Stupak and his allies maintain their convictions in the face of extreme pressure.