The recession is finally here, probably. So, should economists who have been predicting gloom crow? Absolutely not, for two reasons: recessions are inevitable, so predicting them is easy if timing does not matter, and the mere prediction of a recession is not actionable knowledge.

Tucker Hart Adams is a famous pessimistic economist. She made her mark by predicting the recession of 2001. There was a recession in 2001, but it was among the most mild and harmless recessions in modern history. Without the disruption of the unexpected 9/11 attacks, there would have been no recession at all. Nonetheless, Adams predicted a “long and deep” recession due to war. Anyone who acted on her prediction would have missed out on economic opportunities.

Adams also straddles the fence on most of her predictions. She often says that her recessions will be “less harsh” unless something bad happens and then they will be “long and deep.” Earning a living by saying things will be bad if they aren’t good or somewhere in between sounds cushy.

Adams has been calling for a recession for years. She predicted the possibility of a 2005, 2006, and 2007 recession, but none ever came. As before, she hedged with a wide range of timing and severity predictions. No business could profit by heeding all of her doomsday talk. The business cycle creates recessions periodically, so knowing that a recession is on its way is not magic, only predicting the severity and timing takes skill.

Let this blogger attempt to prognosticate.

Plausible? Maybe, but anyone knows that recessions usually last less than 18 months, and the prediction gives itself an out by saying that any longer recession must be due to unspecified government action or inaction. Stating that credit will expand slowly is similarly unhelpful, since slow is a matter of perception. Like most predictions, this one is no more useful than a carnival fortune teller.

Given a long enough time horizon, even the most dire predictions are accurate. The US will fall, and the Constitution will be abandoned. Everyone will die and their homes will fall to dust. All of these are true, but so what? They give no actionable knowledge.

For the record, the most reliable indicator that economic expansion has peaked and a recession is coming in the next 12 months is an increase in real wages combined with a slowdown in the growth of worker productivity. Even that Austrian business cycle measure is often wrong, and most every day in US history has been a good day to start a business and invest in the optimistic view. Short sellers and mattress stuffers have almost always lost out.

Chicken Littles like Adams must not be praised. They auger their chicken entrails and perform other witchcraft, but cloak their voodoo with an air of science. Actually, they know less about the economy than Joe lunch pail, who takes a sense of things every day. So, the next time an ivory tower econmist opines in the Post, try to relax, and certainly don’t take his advice.